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The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered. October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.
The Forgotten Man
| Customer Rating:  | | The book is excellant and provides detailed perspective on how the 1929 depression was extended by the misguided policies of Hoover and FDR. As someone with the middle name of Delano, it sure dispells the myth that FDR is a great American hero. |
Very logical description of the BIG PICTURE
| Customer Rating: | I thought this book was very informative and logical. I think that the "experts" sometimes get lost in the details and completely ignore the BIG PICTURE. It's like they are laying sandbags along a swelling river in front of them and ignoring the growing leaks in the big dam behind them. I realize that this is not an exact science, but the author seems to recognize that as well. Given recent events, he is looking pretty smart right now.
Though the thought of a coming bust is troubling in some ways, I found this book to offer some hope. The author not only outlines the reasons for the coming downturn but offers good ideas for avoiding financial catastrophe. I only wish that I had read it a few years ago. |
Time is short
| Customer Rating: | | Reasonable theory with his demographic studies. Takes one hour to read and can be very helpful to your financial planning, if in fact the baby boomers can affect the economy like he says. |
What this book predicted in 2002 is happening now.
| Customer Rating: | | This book may save your life's savings. Please read it. Kudos to the courageous author for writing this remarkable book, and for giving common people timely and fair warning for what lies ahead. We need more people like Mr. Arnold, who makes this world a better place. |
Mediocre thesis
| Customer Rating:  | The basic thesis, that there will be another Great Depression, seven times worse in fact according to the author, rests entirely on one premise: the number of 45-54 year olds peaking and declining precipitously will cause the Dow Jones (the economy) to crash just as hard. I must admit, the 80+ year correlation between the inflation-adjusted DJIA and the 45-54 year old demographic is astounding. But as we all should know, correlation does not equal causation. In fact that correlation unraveling as we speak, the Dow was sluggish at around 11,000 until 2006-2007, turned highly volatile, peaked in 2007 at over 14,000, and declined since then to well below 12,000. We are now in a bear market if not a recession, and All while the "big-spender" demographic skyrocketed, which will continue until 2011! Where is the boom? The Dow should be on its way to 26,000 and eventually crash to 5000 according to the author. Although this was not the first time the two graphs diverged, he seems to have an explanation for the other divergences (e.g. the New Deal, birth control, etc.). If the New Deal could turn things around, how come this time he says the government will not be able to do anything about it? This book leaves the reader with more questions than answers.
I do believe we are in for some rough times ahead, but demographics is not the reason. The credit and housing crises, combined with high oil and food prices (really just a commodities bubble that has popped), has been hammering away at the economy for the past year or so, and things may still get worse before they get better. Stagflationary recession is likely if we are not already in one, and it may be longer and deeper that expected. But a 13-year depression? The only things that could do that (given all the safeguards we now have in place thanks to FDR) are a) Peak Oil happening suddenly, b) a major war or severe terrorist attack, or c) The Fed. Even Bernanke admits the Fed turned the mild recession of 1929 into a full blown depression through overreacting and using an outdated playbook (i.e. raising rates before and during a deflationary recession).
As for Japan, their 13-year malaise was caused by their own housing and credit crisis, plus the stock market (Nikkei) bursting. Combined with the BOJ raising rates. And like us, the correlation between the Nikkei and demographics has parted ways since 2007, when it declined again.
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