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Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS:
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
–National Review
“If asked to name the five best books written about markets, Fooled by Randomness would be on my list.”
–Jack D. Schwager, author of Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
“Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book.”
–Financial Times
Taleb is unbelievably taken with himself (and has quite an affinity for parenthetical exposition).
| Customer Rating:   | This was mostly a masturbatory essay by an author unbelievably taken with himself. The entire first third of the volume explains to the reader why the author is so smart, and why everyone else is so not smart. He embarks on a series of ad hominem attacks condemning many different people and professions as stupid, while offering no evidence outside of the fact that their trading account may have "blown up." Yes, the first third of book was "noise."
Moving onto part two, we actually get something for our $16.00: we get a basic statistical probability class reduced to laymen's terms. Taleb is certainly not revealing knowledge previously unknown to the world, but we do get maybe 25 pages of "signal."
Taleb's writing style is horrifically jumpy, and lacks the most basic flow techniques, and the last third of the book epitomizes this fact. Even more disappointing, Taleb fails to cleanly summarize the support for his stated hypothesis. He does, however, finally show some humility, if only in one or two sentences. Overall, just more "noise."
It appears Taleb badly needed to write this book as a means to vent and criticize. Although, I'm thinking this may have merely been a tactic to generate sales. His liberal use of hyperbole suggests he is deliberately trying to generate reactions from people and thus generate publicity for the work. An example of this is Taleb claiming that Warren Buffet is just a lucky idiot. The author provides preemptive defenses throughout the book despite the fact that he claims he puts wax in his ears while also reminding us that he has read the Odyssey. Wow, I'm impressed.
I have to agree with him on a few of his criticisms, however. I couldn't agree more when it comes to journalists and financial commentators, and most of all, people who consistenly incorrectly predict market movements on CNBC.
I found it very curious that Taleb systematically attacks the methods of traders in general, but does not let us in on what he does as a trader to maintain long term success. The only shred of evidence we get, is that Taleb does not write options. Okay, so we know what he doesn't do. As someone who trades options, and also does not write options, I would have liked a little elaboration on this topic. As a matter of fact, we don't get any real world applications of how to use the profound knowledge Taleb has bestowed upon us.
Overall, had Taleb employed the services of a professional author who could have organized the endless thoughts and perspectives of Taleb, he could have sold over a million copies, instead of just 260,000. Unfortunately, readers of this book have to endure what is really an autobiography of sorts, informing us of how "deep" the author is. He informs us that he works out at least twice in the book, he constantly brags about his knowledge of literature and philosophy, and let's us know that he travels Europe extensively (by leisurely train of course, because apparently flying is for white trash).
Anyways, the guy has a handful of good points. I just wish the book had some more content. I would have never read the book had I known it was going to be 250 pages of self indulgence written by an author who couldn't be more impressed with himself.
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This book will cause you to think!
| Customer Rating: | | A great book. Read this, then follow up with the BLACK SWAN. I am more inclined to recommend this book for people who are self employed or investors. [.............] |
Does not deliver
| Customer Rating: | | The book sounds like it will give you some insight into the markets or the ramdomness of it. It builds on that expectation but does not deliver it slowly turns into a boring mumbuling of anecdotes. I did not finish the book and left it half way. |
Good ideas, weak style
| Customer Rating: | | Interesting. Annoying. Self-referential. Insulting. Exasperating. Ultimately, intriguing. Taleb is smart, but an autodidact and quite full of himself. (After he lobs his tenth purely gratuitous insult, he is no longer cute -- he is merely sociopathic.) He gets a lot right, but he also plays fast and loose with schools of thought in which his understanding is strictly superficial. (And as with many autodidacts, he has trouble identifying which areas these might be -- making humility the mark of the really smart ones.) Like Descartes, whom he loathes, he is a rich guy who has the time and the means to ruminate with a wide swath of other intellectuals. This breadth offers bridges from ideas with which the reader is familiar into new and intriguing places. And on the pragmatic side, the reader can ask himself just what this guy does that might have saved us from loosing our collective shirts in the market. |
Book for our times
| Customer Rating: | | This book is great and should be a compulsory reading for everyone at college. Lots of people do not realize how much chances and coincidences play roles in our lives. This book is about learning to appreciate the vast number of variables in common life which are not controlled by anyone. |
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