 | Summaries and Customer Reviews are supplied by Amazon.com | Book Description
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
Amazon Exclusive: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on The Predictioneer's Game
 Knowing what will happen around the world can be awfully useful. Forewarned, after all, is forearmed, whether the questions of the day are about business, national security, or our day-to-day lives. The Predictioneer’s Game provides a reliable way to anticipate the future, one you can experiment by using the online version of the game’s program on my website. Suppose, for instance, you want to work out likely future developments in Iran. You can build a data set and test it just as I have done. We all know that Iran’s Ayatollahs faced a pretty stiff challenge following that country’s June presidential election. As I predicted in February 2009. the Qum clerics, sometimes called the Quietists, are quiet no more and Iran’s Supreme Leader is facing the first real political challenge since Iran’s 1979 revolution. Iran is in for more challenging times in the months to come. You might wonder, what is likely to happen to relations between Iran’s and Iraq’s Shia-dominated governments now that the U.S. is withdrawing most of its forces from Iraq? How will the evolving relations between Iran and Iraq shape the interests of the United States in the region? These are some of the questions I try to answer in The Predictioneer’s Game. I conclude that if the U.S. fully withdraws, then Iran and Iraq will form a strategic partnership and Iran might even intervene militarily on behalf of Iraq’s Shia government to put down a rising political threat from the pro-Baathist, anti-American, Sunni Vice President of Iraq, Tariq al-Hashimi. Hashimi’s power is predicted to increase markedly while Prime Minister Maliki’s declines if President Obama decides not to maintain 50,000 American troops in Iraq. If, however, he chooses to keep 50,000 or more troops in Iraq after August 2010, then Iran and Iraq will not forge a strategic alliance, Hashimi’s growing power will be contained, and Maliki will remain in charge. And in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei’s power will continue to decline while the military, the moneyed interests and the Qum clerics will become the backbone of a more moderate, more pragmatic Iranian regime. Predicting the future--whether you are concerned about Iran or about how best to settle a family crisis--is not all that mysterious. If people do what they think is best for themselves--and who doesn’t--then, with game theory’s help, we can anticipate what they will do. Working out other people’s incentives means also working out how altering their costs or benefits can be used to change their behavior and that, after all, is the essence of predictioneering.--Bruce Bueno de Mesquita |
Average Customer Rating:   Strategy & Game theory: Understand & learn how-tos It is rare to find a book that succeeds in making an immediate impact on my thinking, right from the page one and then keeps the continuous focus & attention further till I read the end cover. Yes, that is exactly how this book was. It explains the working of game theory and how to efficiently make strategy using it. Further, the book is replete with very relevant examples on the topic. It captures human behavior in strategic situations. However, instead of written in a text-book style, it is written in style which makes it a very interesting and captivating read.
Now, I'd like to share how this book will impact one's thinking process. It helps to develop rational thinking. Most of the time, when we say we are rational about a certain situation or analysis, we are pretty much including everything we know about it. That is precisely the "bounded rationality". We only include those factors which only we know without considering the other unknowns. The discussions in this book will help you to identify: How each mind thinks in its own rational way? How every situation, big or small, should be thought through in a rational way keeping emotions aside. Behind every act, each human has his own interest in mind, no matter how generous or ghastly the act may seem to the rest of us.
The book lives up to every bit of its expectations as being "Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective".
The author is a well known political strategist with some other interesting titles to his credit including The Strategy of Campaigning: Lessons from Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin, co-authored by Condoleezza Rice.
Intrepid... So, you may have thought through the pros and cons of self-interest after reading Ayn Rand, but this isn't the speculative philosophy of life, it's the real deal. Logic put to work. I'd like to think that intuition plays a large part of what we choose, but this book puts a measure on it, and moves past the guess work of life. Fascinating approach to everything from politics to buying a car, this'll get you thinking. Accessible and thoughtful, this practical look at game theory is great and, I'm sure, going to spark a terrific T.V. series... 'The Predictioner'... it'll happen, just wait and see. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future ISBN 1400067871 - The first, and only, prediction I'd make on this book is that most readers will be way geekier than I. And I totally mean that in a good, awestruck, way because - you've surely noticed by now - geeks run the world and I don't.
Given (some of) the (extraordinarily) lengthy (long-winded...) reviews on this book (which scared me away from reading the book for a while), I'm going to forego any real recap of the book. If you haven't bothered to read any of the more verbose reviews, my short recap: You know the TV show Numbers? This book and that show have two things in common - the use of game theory and I like both for the same reason, because they're over my head 80% of the time but strive not to be. Beyond that, one's a TV show with all kinds of stunningly unlikely events and the book is real, so they go their separate ways pretty early on when you compare them.
If you're like me and tend to let your eyes glaze over when math is the topic, you'll probably find yourself surprised by The Predictioneer's Game. I picked it up because my son is a math geek studying accounting and I can't help but think that there's got to be more interesting things to do with numbers. In my opinion, this book proves me right! Best of all, it's written in a way that is accessible to even the least math-adept amongst us, so it's got a broader appeal than I expected. There were a few glazy-eyed moments for me, but that's more an attention span issue than anything else and I feel comfortable recommending this one to anyone (especially my son!).
- AnnaLovesBooks Good content, lots of ego An excellent book in terms of content. Would be a much easier read with stronger editing. The first third of the book jumps from thought to thought with little flow, but improves later on. The writer's unusually healthy ego is apparent with a very consistent use of "I".
There are lots of good ideas in this book and it's worth reading. It could have been a much more enjoyable experience with better editing and a bit less obvious ego. Proven, Practical, Provocative Proven
The author uses the tools he has developed based on the concepts in the book as the foundation of his robust consulting practice. His clients include the CIA, foreign governments, and corporate CEO's. How he helps them engineer the outcomes they want is entertaining and educational, if at times a little scary.
Practical
I picked up helpful insights in the first chapter and they kept coming. I am definitely going to buy my next car using his method - easier, cheaper and more fun.
Provocative
The book made me look at situations I face at home and at work in a different light. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita teaches you to check your opinions at the door. Results are about the math, not opinions. |  |
Select button not working? 
