 | Summaries and Customer Reviews are supplied by Amazon.com | If you think that global warming means slightly hotter weather and a modest rise in sea levels that will persist only so long as fossil fuels hold out (or until we decide to stop burning them), think again. In The Long Thaw, David Archer, one of the world's leading climatologists, predicts that if we continue to emit carbon dioxide we may eventually cancel the next ice age and raise the oceans by 50 meters. By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long-term climate forecast. Archer shows how just a few centuries of fossil-fuel use will cause not only a climate storm that will last a few hundred years, but dramatic climate changes that will last thousands. Carbon dioxide emitted today will be a problem for millennia. For the first time, humans have become major players in shaping the long-term climate. In fact, a planetwide thaw driven by humans has already begun. But despite the seriousness of the situation, Archer argues that it is still not too late to avert dangerous climate change--if humans can find a way to cooperate as never before. Revealing why carbon dioxide may be an even worse gamble in the long run than in the short, this compelling and critically important book brings the best long-term climate science to a general audience for the first time. |
Average Customer Rating:   Best Scientific Overview On the back cover is a quote from James Hansen: "This is the best book about carbon dioxide and climate change that I have read." I was doubtful before reading it, but after reading it, I definitely agree. I think it is very well written and easy to read, especially for a complex subject like climate science.
You can get bits and pieces of this information from other books, but no book that I have read puts everything together like this one does. And I have read over 20 books dealing with global warming and climate science. Other books dwell too long on relatively insignificant (to me) details, such as the lives of the people who discovered certain key things, or they look at only a narrow part of the timeline. This book goes farther into the past and future than any other I've read.
For example, in other books or articles I have read vague statements about CO2 lasting a long time in the atmosphere. Sometimes they will say much of the CO2 we release now will still be in the atmosphere 50 or 100 years from now. But they usually don't say how much and never talk about longer periods. This book explains how oceans will absorb most of the excess CO2 (70-85%) over a period of roughly 300 years, and over a period of roughly 5,000 years CO2 reacting with CaCO3 will absorb roughly half of the remainder, and then weathering (reacting with igneous rocks) will absorb the rest over a period of about 400,000 years. The time scales depend on how much of each greenhouse gas is released by us and by positive feedbacks. For example, the reaction with CaCO3 could last between 2,000 and 10,000 years. Average global temperature will stay near its peak for roughly 1000 years and will take hundreds of thousands of years to return completely to normal.
Another example: I knew that there are climate cycles caused by different aspects of the earth's orbit, and I had read about other things that affect CO2 concentrations and global average temperature. But this book puts orbital cycles, geologic processes, and the melting and freezing of ice sheets and related feedbacks into context, showing how each operates of very different time scales.
If you want the most complete, concise (only about 175 pages), and clear explanation of climate science to date, this is the best book to get. Take Your Climate Knowledge to the Next Level Archer gives a very unbiased straightforward account of how humans are in the process of changing the climate, and how that will affect this planet in this century, and for the next 100,000 years and beyond. Highly recommended for anyone looking to take their climate knowledge to the next level. It's not poetry, it is after all a scientific book, but Archer has a knack for getting you to keep turning the page. disappointing I'm reviewing the Kindle version. The author's style made this a tedious reading experience. Each chapter seems to repeat/rehash previous material. Attempts to be conversational seem to ring false. In some places, it seems as if the author verbally dictated, rather than wrote, the text; it just doesn't flow well. A editor's touch seems to be missing. The outline of the book: present, past, future is a little strange. Even while accepting the underlying science of AGW, and most of the scientific history presented in the book, I'm afraid that this book is not "the compelling global warming book" that I was hoping that it would be. To be cynical, it seems to be a book thrown together to capitalize on reader interest in one of the top science topics of the day.
Well-reasoned and Informative The Long Thaw is refreshingly free of political overtones, although it attempts to address the thorny issue of what climate change means to humans. The author does this by looking into what the past climate held for the earth, as our planet essentially flip-flopped between very cold and very warm (we have been living in an unprecedented stable period of temperate climate for the last 10,000 years or so).
Lots and lots of science here, but none too daunting, that go into detail on how natural warming and cooling occur, with descriptions of sunspot activities, cyclical orbital changes, ocean mixing behavior, volcanic activity, and yes, carbon dioxide levels. Because the author takes such a long view in the past (and future), he avoids most of the current politicization of global warming discussion. He clearly states that cyclical warming is natural and expected, but then makes a good case that our current warming is likely to be almost completely human-made, as we should be entering a new ice age.
The Long Thaw is quite original in its discussion on important aspects of climate change. It does not re-hash IPCC reports, or discuss alternate energy sources. It doesn't even really scare the reader into thinking climate change is bad - it just points out certain facts, such as an inevitable rise in sea level if carbon dioxide emissions continue along a business-as-usual path.
A few things I learned from the book:
Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, on average, a few hundred years, but some remains for thousands of years.
Very small changes in solar energy input or carbon dioxide levels can lead to very great changes in climate.
Carbon dioxide does not always cause global warming initially, but always makes it worse due to positive feedback cycles. (The warmer it gets, more CO2 is produced, and the more CO2 that is in the air, the warmer it gets.)
We can probably burn all the existing oil and natural gas without causing dangerous warming of the planet, but coal is ten times more abundant than oil and natural gas combined, and if we burn all the coal, the planet will most likely become extremely hot, with sea level rises of 30 feet and displacement of ten percent of the world's population. Sea level rise could be as great as 150 feet, flooding large parts of where people live.
Global warming naturally occurs throughout geological history. The difference this time is that warming appears to be occurring largely due to human burning of fossil fuels, and the change is more rapid than natural. Slow climate change can be adapted to, but it is not known if human societies have the ability to adapt to rapid climate change.
The cost to avoid dangerous climate interference is very small if we act now. Because carbon dioxide emission costs are currently not paid for (they are externalized to everyone, not just the producer), there is no incentive to reduce emissions.
A very well-written book, heavy on science and facts (as currently understood), and almost devoid of politics and alternate energy discussions. The Long Thaw - but not in Geological Time A good general introduction to the subjects of Global Warming and Global Climate Change, BUT nothing new that is not available in a dozen other good books!
The author totally misses the implications of CH4 (Methane) over the past 500,000 years and relates, incorrectly, to the modern myth of cause being man-made CO2.
I might add that PROOF of this CH4 history was discovered in the Vostok ice cores made in Antarctia last year..
JCSpilman (P.E. Ret.) |  |
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