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Q&A with Christoper Steiner, the author of $20 per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better
Steiner, an engineer-turn-journalist, explains how the simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will change our lifestyle, but not necessarily for the worse. Read this Q&A to find out more about this revolutionary theory.
That figure lies far ahead in the future; it's hardly an imminent thing. But most people don't require much convincing to know that $2 gas isn't sustainable for the long term. Oil is a finite resource that the whole world demands--a world that grows more gasoline consumers every day. It's important to understand that this book isn't about oil statistics, it's about our lives and the ways in which we live will change.
What do you hope readers will gain from reading your book?Readers should gain an appreciation for the kind of change that lies behind the growing price of gas. Weaning ourselves from gasoline isn't a scary thing, it's an exciting thing. We're talking about cleaner environments, more walkable lives, better public transportation and more vibrant cities.
What are some of the surprising ways you think rising gas prices will change our everyday lives?I don't think people realize how close our airline industry is to an all-out collapse. The book details a massive airline extinction at $8 per gallon, and in fact, serious change could take place even before then. It's certainly not something that should be celebrated, but the collapse of that industry will open the door to new ones, such as widespread high-speed trains in America, a phenomenon that won't take serious root until plane tickets become luxuries rather than conveniences. Beyond the airlines, I think people might be surprised to think that their future may not include Wal-Mart, and that their food world may condense, ruling out things such as sushi, but introducing things such as local organic fruit, vegetables and meat.
Is this pure speculation and fantasy or what kind of research did you do?I consulted experts in a bevy of industries throughout the whole book, so this is not a random exercise, far from it. That said, it can be hard to forecast exactly at what gas price each change will happen. There are many unforeseen factors that can accelerate or forestall a certain change, such as government involvement in building high-speed train networks. If the government funds trains aggressively, change will be effected quicker, obviously. But I do feel that all of the changes represented in the book will happen eventually, whether they take place at gas prices of $10 per gallon or $12 per gallon.
So how scared should we be of the changes to come?There is little to be scared of. The rising price of gas will unlock countless doors to innovation, opportunity and change.
Why does your book's subtitle say rising gas prices will change our lives "for the better"? How so?We've grown used to engorging ourselves on the back of cheap oil and it has lead to all manners of problems. As the price of gas goes up, we'll live closer to work, school, eat healthier foods and even be skinnier and safer. The book profiles research that connects cheap oil to America's obesity rate and to the daunting numbers of people that die on our roadways. As the price of gas goes up to, say, $6, we'll save more than $30 billion on obesity-related diseases, 10,000 fewer people will die in car crashes and thousands of people will be spared heart attack deaths related to air pollution. Those kinds of effects will only be magnified as the price of gas rises further. And that's just a sampling of the benefits.
In what ways will rising gas prices improve our economy and job market?America has lost much of its manufacturing mojo during the last 20 years. A green revolution, fueled by a search for alternative energies and technologies, could change that. Not only will there be need to produce things such as solar panels, electric cars, and new city infrastructure, but the power of globalization will be blunted by higher gasoline prices. The advantages of, say, making a computer in China decrease as the cost of fuel increases and the cost of transporting things all over the earth rises-that will lead to manufacturing jobs returning here, to home soil.
In what ways will the rising cost of gasoline boost innovation?The innovation game is one that many people anticipate as oil's grip on the world ebbs. New technologies will be needed in all arenas that oil touches, including cars, trains, our homes, the plastic we use and the roads we drive on-and those are just a few examples. The opportunities for inventors in a world with less oil will be prolific.
What kind of places did you visit for your research and why was it necessary to visit them?Good books need good stories, and it's hard to tell a good story from just talking to people over the phone, so I got out there and did things. I worked on an electric UPS truck in Manhattan for a day; I spent some time on a fishing boat hauling in Asian carp; I descended into one of New York's new train tunnels currently under construction; I rode our nation's fastest train to meet the Amtrak CEO in Washington. I'm not anointing my book or my stories as good--that's up to the reader--but creating an enriching storyline within a nonfiction book was my goal, so I'm hopeful I did that.
So now that we know this, what should we do in the here and now?Preparing for the future isn't about buying the latest gadgets or the car with the best mileage. Those things help, of course, but they're mere pings in a coming cacophony. People who will do the least amount of adjusting in the future are those who already live more sustainable lives. Where you live largely determines how you live. Buying solar panels for a house at the far edge of the suburbs, for instance, won't alter how the future affects you. Moving to a walkable neighborhood where groceries, your kids' schools, your office or a train are all within several blocks-that's a change you'll profit from and a place where the future will be kinder.
Customer Reviews:
Makes a good, well-written case.
I enjoyed the book. Not every piece of information in it was new to me, but some of it was and it was eye-opening.
The next 15 years will be some of the most interesting mankind has ever seen. I like to think I've gotten a little preview from this book, but we'll see how things shake out!
The question is when?
I agree with the major premise of the book of $20 per gallon oil (it had already touched ~$10 in a number of countries), but all said and done, I learned nothing new from skimming this book. Sure, oil will be $20 in the future but this book gives us no idea (beyond the ballpark 21st century figure, which has a while to play out) as to when all this will transpire.
Some glaring faults - the book completely misses the boat on Natural Gas, plentiful of which is still being discovered on the American subcontinent. Consumers could easily substitute oil for natural gas, delaying this move towards ever higher oil prices by several decades. Also - does not acknowledge at all, that technology can improve yields from existing oil fields, as well as make it cheaper to extract oil from hard to get places, like tar sands and deep water wells.
Another fault is that the author seems to have filled the pages to justify the price of the book... he revisits/rehashes the same points a few times over, which makes reading the book a bit of a chore (that's where the skimming starts).
All told - I was done reading/skimming the book in about an hour. Was enough value for my time... but I am not sure I would pay to read this. Luckily, I had the Chicago Public Library and my tax dollars to thank me from having to spend anymore.
Not very helpful.
You know that uneasy feeling you get when you realize you are not being informed, but you are being manipulated because it turns out the author started with an agenda? It doesn't take long with this book for the author's contempt for our lifestyle to give you that feeling. Then the promise of new ideas doesn't stand a chance against the politics, and it seems pointless to read any further.
Good things will happen once oil prices rise enough
Christopher Steiner is optimistic about what will happen when oil prices go so high that gasoline costs $20 dollars per gallon, though he admits that the transition will be difficult. $20 Per Gallon examines what will happen and how the changes will occur.
The author is a journalist and the book is written in a journalistic style. There are endnotes and citations, but few are primary sources. He does not claim to be doing new research. The book has chapters named for price per gallon ($6, $8, $10, etc.) Each chapter describes what will change at the different price point.
Though the book is obviously speculative, the descriptions seem plausible to me, though rather optimistic. By the end we will be living in a world where few travel and most of what we consume is produced locally. The author describes this in positive terms, but it seems to me this world will have lost the best of our world.
The biggest flaw I see in this book is that it does not consider alternative fuels. A revival of trains is discussed, but for the most part the author imagines we will passively accept the loss of mobility resulting from higher gas prices. I would expect that many people will see this as an opportunity and develop fuels that offer at least a partial replacement.
In any case we should be in for interesting times.
Interesting
The book is interesting, but probably played better last summer with the high gas prices, and might be more relevant as prices start to creep up again. It seems to me engines will just become more efficient to deal with the higher prices instead of a complete change in society, but who knows.
