 | Summaries and Customer Reviews are supplied by Amazon.com | The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously. Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike. He predicts the following: • The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm." • Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200. • The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013. • Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks. • Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010. • A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020. • The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036. Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails! |
Average Customer Rating:    Loking at the trees - not the forest The title of the review refers to numerous critics who have nit-picked this book from several angles while ignoring its basic premise. Dent is a prognosticator - not an economist much less a prophet. He studies general trends and makes fairly reasonable (and timely) assertions and sometimes correct forecasts. It is silly yet fascinating to make specific predictions adn they should not be taken seriously. There are too many unknowns for long-term pinpointing.
Dent's thesis is that economic health is a function of demographics; innovation derives from a stream of young ideas; spending is primarily a function of age and nations that grow will thrive. This is the forest. The trees are things like war, depression, bubbles, commodities and markets.
I agree with the thrust of his assertion. It's obvious that nations like Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan and others with declining populations will fare poorly in the future. They will lack not only young innovators but also the mindset required for innovation. With fewer workers and more on the dole the financial burden will become onerous. In many places it already has.
My major complaint is Dent's mixing apples and oranges. He correctly describes how the West has given the developing world a head start, compressing modern industrialization into decades rather than the centuries required by Europe. This phenomenon is a result of technological advances. Yet, he still maintains that other cycles will go on as before - 3,000 years, 500, 250, 8, 15, 10, etc. (He introduces so many cycles, charts, swings and growth curves that they become blurred.) What will happen when artificial intelligence,robotics, nanotech and bioengineering reach advanced stages of development? My guess is that all best are off.
Other uncertainties: Deflation (not inflation), a strengthening dollar, "resolution of federal debt" (not to mention solving the problem of Social Security and Medicare), a "Democratic trend" in the electorate and India as the eventual number one. My Grade: B-
Best advice found nowhere else People who judge him harshly are basing their opinion on a very narrow point of view. I own his book from the 90's which predicted this huge market crash. I have his charts that accurately predict it. In 2002 when I was looking at houses to buy I decided to stay away from real estate because his charts show a bad market years ahead.(he was right) I knew from his book I had maybe five years to own the house and sell and decided rather just stay out of the housing market because timing the peak would not be easy(that save me $200,000 based on the value of homes around here). This decade he did change some predictions delaying the horrible scenerio based on immigration numbers. If he had stuck with his original forecast he would have been better off. To say he is wrong is an overstatement. Being off by a couple years does not make him wrong. Use the information wisely. Based on his original book I've been telling people we will be in a Depression around 2008-2009. That was years ago going all the way back to 1994. Now we are in a Depression, or the very beginning of one. People hate those who make predictions. The CNBC "experts" went with popular opinion saying the market will just keep going good. They were wrong, Dent was right. Get this book, it's a great resource to keep your money growing. Underwhelming Okay, so after the introduction & Chapter 1, I'd had my fill. Those pages were spent basically trying to get me to have blind faith in Dent's system of demographic predictions, which include 5,000 year cycles (how practically useful). I got the feeling it was all geared to getting me to sign up for his $400 newsletter, which updates predictions as events unfold. (Now why would that be necessary?) Recommends government bonds as the only way to profit in what's approaching, but my understanding is bonds may be the next great bubble to burst.
In the portions I read, the author repeats himself many times, also claims to be politically neutral and within a couple of pages is making partisan political comments (wtf??) which incidentally indicate ignorance & which turned out to be incorrect.
Returned this one to the store, exchanged it for one of the many many better books. This wasn't worth either the money paid for it nor, more importantly, the time needed to read it. This is an investment advise book, not an urban survival book. For those looking for advise on careers, job skills and small business ideas that might make a depression survivable for the common (read poor) citizen, this is not the book.
This book is written for those who have wealth and are interested in keeping it.
The statistical trend analysis is worth a read, but investment advise is a bit lacking. View of my reading of this book This is a must have book for everyone. Many more people should understand the meaning of our economic crisis and realize it is still going to be critical here at home for many months yet to come in spite of the liberal side of the playing it down platitudes.
Don't believe it.
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